Common Property Chum Update, 30 July 2010:

Tree Point:  About 40,000 chums were caught this week by the drift fleet at Tree Point where there were 45 boats fishing.  The entire group that has fished Tree Point seems to still be on the grounds.  They are still harvesting good numbers of fish from the Nakat THA and some fishermen are staying in Nakat all week. The Tree Point fishery is not only comprised of Nakat chums this year, there are almost equal numbers of Neets Bay and Kendrick chums being caught through the past several weeks.  The Department reports 110,000 chums have been taken in the Nakat THA – and THA harvest reports generally lag the actual fishery at least a few days…sometimes more.   Our conjecture that most of the south end chums were coming in through Dixon Entrance this year, hugging the southern shore, seems to be true and this also seems the case for pinks.

The D106 harvest of chums seems to have stayed the same this past week with 64 boats fishing this week.  In most years a good proportion of the Neets Bay chum return comes down Clarence Strait through D106, but this did not happen in 2010.  Almost all the Neets fish came inside through Dixon Entrance.  The harvest in D106 this week was a mixed bag of sockeye, summer coho, pinks and chum.  Most of the chums were from Anita Bay.  There will still be some summer coho in the area of Whale Pass for another week or 10 days, but that run is winding down.  Likewise, there will still be Anita chums in D106 for another week to ten days, but most of these fish are caught in D108 and the Anita Bay THA.

D108, there has been very little fishing time in D108 this year.  This past week the drift fleet got two days.  Thirty eight boats fished this opening and they were clearly targeting Anita Bay chums.  It looks like that run has just peaked and these fish should be available for another week or two.

The Kendrick chum return should be nearly over with some possible clean up in D102 and in the THA.  The Kendrick return is now at about 105% of the forecast and these numbers will increase as we are able to examine some fisheries that are not included in the normal database. 

D101 Seine, The largest concentration of seiners during the early week opening was in D101, 91 boats.  About 44,000 chums were harvested during that opening.  It is likely the ongoing seine opening, as this is being written, will also see a decent number of chums harvested.  The predominant stock of chums in that fishery is Neets Bay.  The first few fall chums we have seen this year were among the summer chums in this harvest.  There is also a fairly large unmarked group of chums in this catch, some of them are from Metlakatla.    

Neets Bay troll fishery:  There is a special tab (above) for Neets Bay Troll.  This fishery is over except for a couple of trollers who will probably continue fishing the area into early August.  While Neets Bay fish continue to enter the THA, the fish are not lingering in the Behm, they are passing quickly into the THA.  The only obvious abundance of chums in the THA is now in the area of the barrier.  These are being used for broodstock and cost recovery.

Anita Bay: It is always difficult to get current information about Anita Bay.  Because of the greater than normal closure of traditional common property fisheries this summer, there has been a good deal of seine pressure on the Anita Bay THA.  Good numbers of returning fish are often caught in the D108 drift fishery, but that has also been closed most of the time.  We have very little information about the eventual strength of that return as most of the fisheries we use to index that run have not been open a great deal.  It also appears, unlike the other SSRAA summer chum, these fish came inside around the north end of POW were there was little effort or fishing time.  For the past several years the timing of this return has been a little later than Neets Bay – so, if that holds true in 2010, there should be fish entering the THA through D108 for another week to 10 days.

When assessing the fisheries from the attached graphics please note:  Most of the returns will appear to drop off in week 31.  Some of that is related to real abundance, but in part that is because the numbers from the THA fisheries are not complete for week 31.  Also, seiners are fishing the south end as I write.  This harvest is not included on the attached graphics.  The numbers through week 30 are representative of harvest.

 
Chum in general:  The run this year is still predominantly 4-year-old fish, though we are starting to see fair numbers of three-year-olds.  The threes should build through the final clean up of these returns.  It is too early in that process to make a general statement about their abundance.   Each of SSRAA’s returns is now greater than the forecast with the exception of Anita…and since Anita is the latest of the runs, that could also end up over forecast when all the numbers have settled.  Though the returns are larger than we anticipated, at this point they are only slightly larger.   The best characterization at this point is that the forecasts appear to be pretty accurate.

Common Property Chum Update, 23 July 2010:

Tree Point:  Though a good number of chums are still being caught in the Tree Point fishery, that fishery was constrained to a two-day period this past week under the pink management plan.  The harvest in Tree Point for 47 boats was 570 chums per boat with a harvest estimate of 26,800 total chums on the opening.  Most of the effort (40 plus boats) has dropped back into Nakat.  We are still finding a good number of Neets fish in the Tree Point harvest, while the fish harvested in the Nakat THA are Nakat fish.  The Department reports 90,000 chums total have been taken in the THA – and THA harvest reports generally lag the actual fishery at least a few days…sometimes more.  Likely more than 100,000 fish have been harvested in Nakat.

D106, harvest of chum went up a little again this past week.  Like the other drift districts, 106 had only two days of fishing this week.  The 57 boats fishing the district were fishing several different fisheries; chum or sockeye and summer coho.  The per boat chum harvest was 228, but no doubt it was better than that for those gill netters targeting chums.  We mentioned this several times previously, most of the fish returning to southern SE releases came in the south side of Dixon Entrance this summer.  Historically a high percentage of these chum have come down through Clarence Strait, but that was not the cast in 2010.  The coho return to Neck Lake still seems to be strong though fewer people are now targeting these fish (see the coho tab for more detail). 

The harvest in Kendrick was all in the THA itself.  The fishable part of this THA is a postage stamp compared to the average THA.  Anecdotal reports suggest a number of seiners lined up waiting their turn to make the several sets available in the THA.  Generally a portion of D102 is open in conjunction with the Kendrick THA.  That was not the case earlier this week.  D102 did open yesterday, but we have not been able to get harvest information from that opening as yet.  As you can see on the attached graphic Kendrick has produced a lot of chum salmon this year…but the total was divided among far more units of gear than is usually the case.

Neets Bay troll fishery:  There is a special tab (above) for Neets Bay Troll.  The short of it is that the abundance of chum in Neets Bay is at least what we would expect at this date, likely greater than we would expect.  Cost recovery is going well.  At the peak of the fishery there were 85 trollers counted with their gear in the water.  They have now harvested slightly more than 200,000 fish, primarily in Behm Canal, though the outer portion of the THA was open from July 12 through 15.  Most of the fleet has left the area with about 30 boats remaining.  The current fishery is being tendered by several processors.

Anita Bay: It is hard to get current information about Anita Bay.  Because of the closure of traditional common property fisheries for most of this week, there has been a good deal of seine pressure on Anita Bay.  I just spoke to a processor who thought perhaps 50 seiners were headed for Anita for the next seine rotation.  There has been some drift participation in Anita and in D108, the corridor for fish approaching Anita.  This run is later than our other returns and should be moving into the peak abundance period…at the same time, the fishing pressure is significant for a release the size of Anita’s and that will probably be reflected in the per boat harvest.   And then, it is one of the few places available for net gear.

Traditional Common Property Seine Fisheries:   All the traditional seine fisheries were closed on Sunday and we haven’t seen the date from the late-week opening.  From earlier data and evidence from gill net harvest at Tree Point, it would seem the pinks are behaving like the chums and hugging the southern shore as they enter Dixon Entrance.  The harvest from D101 seine would be the indicator for that conjecture.  D103 and D104 were open and there are reports of decent chum numbers on those boats…not huge, but decent.  Historically this is just about the point where the Neets fish start dropping with untagged fish gaining harvest portion.  We will know more as our otoliths are processed and read next week.

The attached graphics do not include week 30 numbers.  Our ability to develop good numbers lags most fisheries by a week.  Putting up numbers from the first half of week 30, not including the recent opening, could prove misleading for people using this information to plan their next harvest.

The attached chum graphics do not include some successful fisheries and don’t include some recent adjustments from the department – all of which would raise the numbers.  It is likely that Nakat, Kendrick and Neets have all reached their harvest forecast numbers and when the data settles they will have exceeded their forecasts.  That is also possible at Anita, thought we have not had enough information at this point to draw any conclusions. 

The run this year, to this point anyway, if predominantly 4-year-old fish.  Everyone noted the small size of chum salmon in 2009.  When the fish are particularly small it is possible a good portion at any age do not reach the size required for the fish to mature and spawn.  This is particularly true of 3’s and the 3’s are very important in the forecast.  Historically we have noted small fish several times and tried to factor this small-fish phenomena in our forecast…and each time we did that it did not prove the case.  This past year we deliberately chose not to factor this into the forecast and simply used the mathematical output from our forecast model.  And…there is little doubt the small 3’s last year did not return in the normal number for the group.  That’s how things seem to go in forecasting, but then most of us are happy with small windfalls as compared to returns that do not reach forecast.  Because this occurred, the actual return will be imbedded in the statistical model which should now more take this into account without some intuitive tweaking. 

John Burke

Fishery Update, 9 July 2010 (updated chum graphics included…chinook and coho early next week):

SSRAA kings are still showing in local sport and some THA “clean up” fisheries including cost recovery. 

Snow Pass Coho have not slowed as yet and continue returning in greater numbers than anyone anticipated.  The amount of drift gear in D106 has gone down from 90 boats to 53 over the past several weeks.  The coho harvest per boat remains very good at 245 fish, considering some of the effort is directed specifically at sockeye and not the coho. 

Tree Point (600,000 pounds of chum) continues to be a good place to catch chum salmon.  The portion of Neets Bay fish in the harvest has dropped from 50% to the more usual 25% this past week.  This probably is related to an increase in the terminal harvest of Nakat chums more than a decrease in Neets Bay chums in the fishery.  The weekly ADF&G announcement lists Tree point as the best per/boat fishery for chum at 1,333.  This number does not include the fish taken from the Nakat SHA while Tree Point is closed. 

D106, harvest of chum has gone up a little in D106 while participation has dropped to almost half the drift fleet that were fishing this district two weeks ago, 53 boats now from 90 two weeks ago.  It appears the primary target species in D106 remain summer coho from Neck Lake and Burnett Inlet Hatchery and sockeye.  As is usually the case, we have seen few Anita Bay chum salmon in the fishery.  These fish are generally later than any of our other summer chum releases, and they should be appearing in D106/D108 soon.

The harvest in Kendrick (630,000 pounds of chum) was approximately what we would have anticipated at this time.  Kendrick seemed to slow the last few days of the opening.  It is possible that was due to high pressure – hot weather – or the larger than usual fishing effort in D102.  The normal things we observe suggest the run is not nearly done.  With a number of south end seine openings Sunday it is likely most of the seine fleet will be in SSE.

Neets Bay troll fishery.  There is a special tab (above) for Neets Bay Troll.  The short of it is that the abundance of chum in Neets Bay is at least what we would expect at this date, likely greater than we would expect.  Cost recovery is going well.  There are 30 trollers working the Behm just outside the THA now and the outer portion of the THA will be open to troll on Monday at 6am.  The opening will last until 6pm on Thursday.  We anticipate 50 trollers and a good harvest.  The fish weight 11 pounds round in cost recovery and male % is still 55 to 60.

Chum seine graphics are attached.  Some of state week 28 numbers are incomplete…primarily D102 seine.  The graphic information, from tag recovery and reading thermal tags, lags actual harvest by at the least several days and sometimes with coded wire tags, several weeks.

John Burke

Fishery Update, 3 July 2010 (updated graphics will be included early next week):

SSRAA kings are still showing in local sport and some THA “clean up” fisheries.  The run is not as large as last year’s return.  It is interesting that the troll harvest (sport also) may eventually be almost the same as last season’s, though the terminal net clean up fisheries, including cost recovery, have seen fewer fish.  The fish were larger than usual, suggesting the strong year class that has been driving abundance is getting near the end of their run…getting old. Local sport harvest should remain good through another 10 days or two weeks.

Snow Pass Coho continue to return in greater numbers than anyone anticipated for this date…or for that matter, for any date.  It looks like the fish attracted an audience as there were 90 drift boats fishing District 106 (15,200 summer coho harvested) this past week.  With this much effort we would have expected a larger harvest of chum salmon than the 4,100 fish listed on the Department News Release.  And then…

We have suggested the past several years that more of the summer chum seemed to be using the southern entrance to SE, Dixon Entrance, than we saw in the 5 or 6 years proceeding.  Chum catches were good again at Tree Point (420,000 pounds).  Taking a look at otoliths, almost exactly half the fish caught in the Tree Point drift harvest were Neets Bay fish.  This is not the usual situation.  We looked at the past three years and about 10% to 15% of the summer chum harvest at Tree Point was from Neets Bay.  The high percentage of Neets fish in this harvest, coupled with the relatively small chum harvest in D106 is pretty strong evidence that at this point most of the Neets Bay summer chum are coming in through the south entrance.  It might be of interest to some folks, similar to last year, the fish caught in D106 are a real mixed bag including fish from DIPAC and NSRAA.  Suggesting at least some of those fish are also coming in the south entrance.  These are not big numbers…just a large mix of relatively small numbers from each group.  We also saw this last year.  Looking at the Department’s per boat harvest…as is the case more often than not, Tree Point was a good choice for drifters.

The harvest in Kendrick (450,000 pounds) was approximately what we would have anticipated at this time.  The primary summer chum catch in Kendrick is from Kendrick.  There were landings from 23 seiners who fished Kendrick this past week.  With a number of common property Districts opening on the south end this week, we anticipate seeing more of the fleet and some SSRAA chums caught across all those traditional fisheries.

Neets Bay troll fishery.  There have been from 4 to 7 trollers working in Behm Canal immediately outside the Neets Bay THA this past week.  I have tried to put the harvest together to estimate a per/day boat total.  They appear to be catching between 100 and 200 fish a day, closer to 100.  The fish are quite large.  Our last QC report from the Lucky Buck had close to a 12 pound average for chums.  The cost recovery fishery has been very slow to date, but that is not unusual.  We generally don’t have our first “decent” set until the week of the 4^th…usually after the 4^th.  A reminder, the harvest at Neets is about 10 days later than DIPAC or NSRAA, sometimes even longer than that.  The period from 25 July to about 7 August is considered the peak of the return; so, right now we are very early in this return.

John Burke

Fishery Update, 24 June 2010:

SSRAA chinook are still showing in good numbers in the spring access troll fisheries.  More of these fish should be getting inside near their destination – Herring Cove, Neets Bay, Anita Bay and Blind Slough.  Troll remains open in the Anita THA and at Mountain Point until these runs are done.  Neets is only open through noon today and then at some point in July for chum (see Neets Management section).

Sport harvest has picked up, but the harvest numbers have not been updated on the ADF&G Tag Lab report since last week.

At noon today the last net gear rotation, seine, at Neets Bay will close.  Participation has been greater than last year, though chinook numbers lag behind what was harvested last year.  Regardless, a significant number of chinook have been harvested at Neets.  Anita Bay remains open to net gear in rotational fisheries. 

The Kendrick THA is open for seine gear, but this is a very small area and we would not anticipate large numbers of chum in the THA at this date.  The area of D102 adjacent to Kendrick, that is often open with Kendrick, should open again soon (likely announced by ADF&G tomorrow, Friday June 25).  Early season openings of this section of D102 generally occur when Hidden Falls is open.  Because of the early harvest of chum in D101, we would anticipate chum will be harvested by seine in D102 whenever the next opening occurs.

Both D101/Nakat and D106 were open 4 days this week to drift gear.  We were a little surprised at the chum harvest in 101.  Some of those otoliths have already been read and the catch is a mix of Neets Bay and Nakat chum, about 50/50 at this point.  The Nakat chum abundance should grow and predominate the harvest.  We won’t have a good feel for chum harvest in D106 until we get more information from port sampling tenders tomorrow.  Snow Pass Coho were the primary target of the drift fleet last week, and likely this has not changed.  It appears that this run is both early and strong – we are certain at least about the “early” part.  These fish have already made significant contributions to local drift, sport and troll fisheries.

Updated graphics are attached…remember that the last several weeks are always underestimated as tag processing and the associated harvest expansions take several weeks to complete…even longer for sport harvest.

We begin cost recovery fishing in Neets Bay tomorrow morning…June 25.

John Burke

Fishery Update, 17 June 2010:

The number of SSRAA-produced chinook continue to build in both spring access troll fisheries and net rotations in THA’s.  All three SSRAA release areas, Neets Bay, Whitman Lake and Anita Bay are producing good numbers of chinook for this date. 

Rotational fisheries have started at Neets Bay and Anita.  The second drift rotation is ongoing at Neets with about 8 to 10 boats participating.  Approximately 22 seiners participated in the first seine rotation in Neets.  While there was a decent harvest of chinook in the last drift rotation at Anita Bay, we have not seen any harvest from seine in that THA.  Hatchery access troll harvest is growing on the south end as the fish begin to return to the release sites. 

Snow Pass Coho: there are some fish in the raceway at Whale Pass.  There were close to 1,000 coho harvested in D106 last week.  These numbers should build for at least another month.  There are also reliable reports from local trollers that they are now catching these fish.

SSRAA continues to harvest chinook from the raceway at Whitman Lake.  About 1,000 fish have been taken to date.  We are a little surprised that the overall harvest at Mt. Point, sport and troll, does not seem to reflect the apparent abundance in this area.  It is always possible that the fish have gone “off the bite” to some extent as they approach the hatchery, but it is still early for this to happen.

Current harvest information supports our earlier suggestion that the chinook and summer coho are a little earlier than usual this spring/summer.  Soon that will be a mute point as we would expect these fish to build in terminal areas within the next 10 days to two weeks.

We included one new graphic in the report.  Susan plotted the harvest of SSRAA-produced chinook from the different troll quadrants over time.  Some of these changes are related to fishing patterns and the areas open to troll; regardless, there is a clear trend in the data.  The fish have moved from the outside (NW) to more inside areas and more to the SE where the largest harvest is currently taking place.  This is expected…it is reassuring to observe what one would expect to observe.

The Lucky Buck is being anchored in Neets Bay as I type.  The barrier seine is installed.  There will be common property net rotations in Neets as well as continuous troll through the 24^th when the THA will close to common property fishing.  We will begin cost recovery harvest in Neets Bay on the 25^th.  The THA will not likely open to (chum) troll until after the summer chinook fishery…please check “Neets Bay Management Plan” under the “Fishery Details” section for more information on chum trolling in 2010.

John Burke

Fishery Update, 14 June 2010:

Decent numbers of SSRAA-produced chinook continue to be harvested in spring hatchery access fisheries as well as by net fishermen in the Terminal Harvest Areas at Neets and Anita.  All three SSRAA release areas, Neets Bay, Whitman Lake and Anita Bay are producing good numbers of chinook for this date. 

The barrier seine has been installed at Neets Bay and rotational fisheries, drift and seine, have started and will continue through the 24^th of June.  Neets is open continuously to trolling through the 24^th.

Snow Pass Coho: there are already some fish in Whale Pass, not large numbers as yet, but more than we are used to seeing at this date.

SSRAA has taken some excess kings from the raceway at Whitman Lake.  Last season, the first excess kings were taken from the raceway in the first several days of July.  This year the fish entered the raceway quite a bit earlier than usual.  Most of these early fish have been on the small side, which means there is probably a strong year class – two ocean fish - that is just coming to size.  The killer whales are also back to Mt. Point, where they intercept these fish alongside local trollers and sport fishermen. 

Run timing: most often when people talk about early runs, and particularly “hopeful” talk about late runs, the real subject is not run timing but an unanticipated abundance (or lack of abundance) of fish.  This summer the kings are back to the raceway at Whitman earlier than usual and there are some summer coho back in Whale Pass earlier then we usually see them.  Though it is fun to speculate, at this point we do not know what this means or why some of these fish have come home early.  We will have a better sense of overall run timing for 2010 in a few weeks.

John Burke

First Fishery Update of 2010, 4 June 2010:

SSRAA-produced chinook continue to be harvested in spring hatchery access fisheries.  The primary contribution this past week was from fish released at Neets Bay, though the Anita and Whitman Lake releases are also showing well in the fisher.  Most of the fish have been caught in NE and SE quadrants, though this is likely more related to the open areas than to fish abundance.

This past weekend marked the start of the Ketchikan Salmon Derby.  Several hundred chinook were entered and likely other fish harvested.  Much of this harvest took place in the Mt. Point area where a high percentage of fish are of Whitman Lake origin.  These fish have not yet made it into the coded wire tag database.

The standing section of the barrier seine at Neets Bay is installed and we contemplate the deep section will be installed within the next several days.  Several drift boats are working the Neets THA and sharing some chinook with the seals.  It is our impression that though the Neets return appears to be strong, not many of those fish are in Neets Bay at this time.

Snow Pass Coho: at this time we have heard reports of several jumpers in Burnett Inlet, but little more.  These fish are not expected in the terminal areas until the end of June.

I had several inquires this week about a large number of SE chums being harvested in Prince William Sound.  Each year there are a handful of SE chum caught in the first openings off the Copper River.  We are talking literally about a handful of fish, two or three otoliths, not a substantial number.  The larger chum fishery in front of Esther Island appears to be early and strong.  Most of the drift fleet in PWS is participating because the Copper River run has not been that good and that fishery has been closed.  We do not know of any SE chums being caught in the fishery at Esther, nor would we expect SE chums to be that far inside PWS.  At this point, the reports of large numbers of SE chums being harvested in PWS fit in the creative category of “dock talk”.

John Burke

First Fishery Update of 2010, 27 May 2010:

The harvest of SSRAA chinook, about 3,300 fish, in the 2009/2010 winter fishery was several times greater than what we saw last year, and we considered last year a good winter fishery.  The fish were caught in all four quadrants, predictably more in the NW than elsewhere.  Harvest of SSRAA chinook seems to be moving more inside to the NE and SE quadrants in the spring access fisheries, though this movement is more an artifact of open areas as opposed to the abundance of chinook.  Most of the hatchery access fisheries are in inside areas.  SSRAA’s three primary releases of Chickamin River fish are all doing well with Neets and Anita Bay doing slightly better than Herring Cove, though that could easily change with the results from a single week.

There has been little sport harvest noted as yet in the Ketchikan Creel survey.  The derby begins this weekend and the weather looks decent.  It is likely we will see these numbers pick up on the Memorial Day weekend.  Remember, it takes several weeks to get the tags from harvest processed and read with associated expansions, so all numbers in the spring fishery will likely increase, though the winter fishery numbers have probably “settled”.  This lag is particularly true of the sport numbers.

The standing section of the barrier at Neets Bay will be installed by tomorrow with the deep section a couple of weeks away.  This makes little difference now as the fish are not yet attracted to the hatchery’s freshwater system.  There have been several gill netters in Neets Bay and a few trollers have given it a pass.  Though we have no first hand reports, it does not appear to be a “hot spot” yet.   

Snow Pass Coho: we have seen a few jumpers in Burnett Inlet in front of the hatchery.  We have not seen any sign that would suggest large numbers of these fish are present near Whale Pass, nor would we expect decent numbers of Snow Pass Coho until at least mid June and probably later.

Several chums were also seen in Neets Bay, but we would emphasize “several” as being 5 or 6 fish…not schools of fish.  This is usual for this date.

Going forward, the abundance of chinook in hatchery access fisheries should build through the next three weeks up through the week before the summer chinook opening.  The fish have not come “inside” in large numbers, but more and more should be found inside near the terminal areas through the month of June.  We would not anticipate any number of chum in Neets Bay until the third week of June…and then not large numbers until early July.  Snow Pass coho should follow this same pattern through District 106 as they approach Whale Pass and Burnett Inlet.

John Burke