3 September 2008, Cost Recovery Update:

We still harvest the odd summer chum at the barrier, but realistically, that run is over. 

There are fall chum in the bay.  The schools are still discrete and difficult to catch.  It is very early in the run.  The last QC report from the processor was only 30% female, which is about as low as it ever gets…and that signifies that we are in the very early stages of the return.

We are catching perhaps 20 to 30,000 pounds a day and delivering to the Buck every two days.  Though it is still slow, by the date we are ahead of the normal harvest of these fish.  The fish are still relatively large for fall chum, averaging 9.3 pounds on the most recent harvest.

There are some coho in the bay and they have been present for more than a week.  Again, these are not in big numbers, but checking back to the most recent 5 years, this is relatively early to see any fall coho in the harvest at Neets.   The coho are large.  The last QC report on several thousand pounds was an average size of 11.3 pounds.

Broodstock:  We will start looking for fall broodstock next week.  This is a little earlier than usual.  The fish will be pumped out of net pens across the barrier retaining many of the early males and coho for harvest.  Chinook egg take goals were met at both Whitman Lake and Crystal Lake and summer coho broodstock is in hand at Burnett.

Snow Pass Coho:   We just completed the third harvest from the return to Burnett Inlet.  The fish are getting darker, and that was likely the last time we will harvest.

Whitman Coho:  Fall coho are beginning to collect in the raceway at Whitman Lake.  The staff at Whitman Lake is sorting some of the early returning males for harvest today…for the first time this season.  Females will be retained toward broodstock.  This is relatively early for coho to be in the raceway at Whitman Lake.

28 August 2008, Cost Recovery Update: 

Harvest of summer chum has been slow for the past two weeks.  There have been a few fish across that time.

We picked up our first obvious school of fall chum this past Tuesday.  The average weight went up two pounds and the male percentage moved from about 35 to 60, a sure sign you are moving from late summer run to early fall run chums.  The color of a fall chum is also different from a summer – the fish get externally darker while they are still relatively fresh as compared to summers.

There have been some coho in the bay for a week now, though the numbers are not yet large.  Fall coho are averaging over 10 pounds at this point and generally get larger through the next several weeks.

Related to the summer chum, the Neets run was about 75% of what we anticipated in the forecast.  The value of the fish and roe is certainly better in 2008, and it is possible the added value will compensate for the diminished numbers.

Overall, the outside releases of SSRAA summer chum (Nakat 135% of forecast and Kendrick 100% of forecast) did better than the inside releases (Neets 75% of forecast and Anita 40% of forecast).  This can generally be attributed to natural situations, likely the distribution of predators…though that speculation can’t be verified.

The 3’s were the strongest year class related to what was anticipated.  That holds for all release sites, though more so for Neets and Nakat than for Kendrick.  Kendrick had the only group of 4’s that was close to forecast.  Fish size was larger in 2008 than in 2007, but overall they were not excessively large; while the 3’s as a group were larger than usual in weight.

Broodstock:  About 10,000 fish were added to broodstock over the past week.  There are still quite a few fish behind the barrier, but recruitment into the raceway has been impossible because of high flows in Neets Creek.  The crew at Neets is nearing the egg take goal, but because of reluctant fish and high flows, it has not been an easy process in 2008.

Snow Pass Coho:   We are doing our final harvest this weekend at Burnett Inlet.  The return to Burnett survived well and with the final harvest we will have done 3 cost recovery harvests at the hatchery.  While a number of sockeye were identified in the fishery, very few have returned to either Neck Lake or Burnett Inlet.  This is difficult for us to understand.

Whitman Kings: The last kings have been harvested at Whitman and the egg take is completed.  The tally ended up at about 10,000 fish harvested from the raceway with about 110,000 pounds of frozen product shipped south.  This is significantly greater than previous cost recovery efforts at Whitman.

10 August 2008, Cost Recovery Update:

Harvest dropped off dramatically the middle of last week.  The fish are still in good condition, very few dark fish or loose eggs…but there are few fish at the head of the bay.  We still see some jumpers in the Bay, but the schools under them are not that large.

Current, real time, reading of otoliths taken from harvest in 101, 106, 107 and 108 shows some Neets Bay summer chum in the harvest, not large numbers, but at the same time the run has not totally dried up.  We are hoping for a little weather to bring these fish back to the bay for a few more decent harvest days, or not.

At this point it appears the 4’s were very weak.  We did not see many 3’s in 2007 and speculated that one of two things happened.  Statistical analysis suggested that, because the 3’s were very small, the normal number of 3’s might not have reached threshold size to return and would return instead as 4’s.  We also acknowledged the possibility that whatever caused the small size could have easily have caused excessive mortality.  It now appears that was the case.

This year’s 3’s were numerous and large.  At this point I am not certain what an “average” year represents.  You would probably have to follow a program like this for 50 to 100 years – with the associated variation in ocean conditions, weather, and predator abundance – to have a sense of what was truly average.  And, perhaps there is no “average” situation as the environment for the fish continues to change in some very long term trends.  Regardless…a set of chunky and numerous 3’s could mean a run that more met our usual expectations in 2009, though we will not know that until we see the fish next summer.

Broodstock:  Currently there are enough fish behind the barrier to take care of egg collection this summer.  We will try to put an additional 8,000 fish across during the next week.  These are more insurance against unexpected mortality behind the barrier seine.  We hope they are not necessary.

Egg take is well underway with almost half the required eggs collected to date.  We were able to repair the mechanism that manipulated the lake intake for Neets Bay water.  This has allowed us to raise the incubation temperature, which will help to get the fish out into saltwater earlier next spring.  

Snow Pass Coho:   We did not harvest this past week, though there are still some fish in the raceway and stream as well as in the current harvest; the high pressure period we just went through pretty much stopped fish movement.  Rain is forecast tomorrow, and that should perk the fish up some.  We plan a harvest on Monday and Tuesday (Aug. 11 and 12).  There are also some sockeye in the raceway and we have noticed a fair number of sockeye in the harvest in 106 and 108.  The future of this run will be more clear to us after some weather.

Whitman Kings: There are still a few kings entering the raceway at Whitman Lake, but for all practical purposes this run is over.  When this is over we will have sent 3 containers of frozen Whitman Kings south.  This was far and away our best cost recovery effort at Whitman Lake.

3 August 2008, Cost Recovery Update: 

Except for several days when we made the collection of broodstock a priority the harvest of Neets Bay chums continues to match the processing capacity of the Lucky Buck.  This has been the case for three weeks.   

We continue to say pretty much even with the fish as they enter the inner bay and there has been no large build up at the barrier seine, nor have we seen loose eggs on the cutting table or dark fish in the tender holds.  At some point this will happen as some fish ripen away from the inner bay and only approach the barrier as they are ready to spawn, but to date this has not occurred. 

Even though the fish appear to be relatively bright, we are grading them all pale related to the meat color.  It always seems a little counter intuitive, but at some point in the return, regardless of skin color, the fish all become pale. 

Most recently we have focused our otolith lab “reading” more on common property harvests that will give us an idea how long the summer harvest may continue at Neets Bay as opposed to the cost recovery harvest itself.  Regardless, the size and condition of the fish suggests the trend continues as it has and this return is largely comprised of 3’s.  We have seen the same thing at Nakat…though not at Kendrick where the four-year-olds drove the return.  As we cautioned earlier, do not make too much of this going forward to 2009 until we have all the absolute numbers on the table.  It could simply prove an average return of 3’s against a poor group of 4’s.  And then it could be very positive going into next year.  One thing is certain, it is not a bad sign for 2009.

Run details:  the return is currently at 58-60% female and the size has dropped to slightly under 9 pounds.  We anticipate at least another week of decent run strength in Neets, and of course we hope for a little more than that.  There are always a handful of summers that stretch themselves out until about 1 September when the fall fish begin to arrive.

Broodstock:  Currently there are enough fish behind the barrier to take care of egg collection this summer.  Last year we only had about a third of the fish needed behind the barrier at this date.  As was the case last summer, with the cool stream and raceway temperatures the fish were reluctant to recruit from the holding pond to the raceways.  Instead of waiting for that to happen, we placed the broodstock behind the barrier a little earlier.  With the current cool water the fish are holding very well and have started to recruit.  The hatchery staff did the third egg take yesterday (Saturday) and should continue almost daily from this point through 15 to 18 egg collection days.

Snow Pass Coho:   We completed one more harvest at Snow Pass this past week.  It was half a load.  There are still some fish coming to the raceway and it is possible we could see several more harvests between the raceway at Neck Lake and excess fish returning to Burnett. 

Whitman Kings: We are still harvesting at Whitman Lake.  Staff has donated fish to residents, set aside the necessary broodstock and continues to harvest fish entering the raceway at Whitman Lake.  Approximately 10,000 fish have been harvested at this point.  We should be nearing the end of the chinook return to Whitman Lake.

28 July 2008, Cost Recovery Update:

The harvest of Neets Bay chums continues to match the processing capacity of the Lucky Buck.  This has been the case for several weeks.  We are also about half way to our broodstock goal.

We have been harvesting fish as they entered the inner bay and have pretty much stayed ahead of the run.  Because of this we are still seeing a good % of the fish with good meat color, where historically we often stop grading for color – calling everything pale – on about the 20^th.  There has been little build up at the barrier, and those fish we have harvested there have been put across the net for broodstock.

For those people interested in run details, we are currently at about 47% of the forecast (common property plus cost recovery) for the Neets Bay run.  By year class, the harvest has seen 138% of the forecast 5’s, 25% of the forecast 4’s and 75% of the forecast 3’s.  The anticipated 5’s fraction was not very large, so exceeding that is not a significant change from the perspective of the entire return.  Getting only 25% of the 4’s and 75% of the 3’s at this point is a significant change.  It is accurate to say the 3’s have predominated to date, and since they tend to come back a little later than 4’s, that will likely not change.  Simplistically, the 4’s are weaker at this point than we anticipated while the 3’s are stronger.  Looking at the date it is fair to anticipate an equal number of 4’s to what has been harvested moving forward and perhaps more 3’s than have been harvested to date.  

The run has just had several days when half the fish were female.  If the 3’s predominate, this should not be viewed in the normal fashion.  We are probably near the half way point or a little past since the 3’s tend to be slightly more males than female…while 4’s are slightly more female in the overall return.

We are looking carefully at Nakat as the year class structure of the returns at Nakat and Neets seem to be somewhat similar.  At Nakat we have seen about 50% of the 5’s forecast and 50% of the 4’s, but 200% of the forecast 3’s.  If we are half way at Neets, the percentage of 3’s and 4’s to the forecast numbers should be relatively close to Nakat’s return.

There have been some calls suggesting a large group of fish moving toward us from fisheries along the southern entrance – asking if we need help at Neets.  It is not uncommon to get those calls.  We have processed otoliths of fish harvested in the past several days from D104, 102, and 101 including Metlakatla, and have not seen any large pulse of fish in common property harvest of the magnitude that would prove a problem at Neets Bay.  We do see some Neets Bay fish in all these groups which is reassuring, but we are not in any fashion overwhelmed in Neets Bay.  If anything we are almost perfectly matching harvest and broodstock collection to fish numbers entering the bay.  Usually at this time we get a little behind which allows fish to build at the barrier, though these buildups are easily cleaned up as the run slows in the second week of August.  There has been no build up at the barrier as yet this summer.

Snow Pass Coho:   We just finished our 5^th harvest at Neck Lake.  From an historic perspective we are well ahead of some of our better years.  But, last year the run stopped two to three weeks earlier than it had in previous years.  Right now it appears that this might be going on this summer.  The harvest has slowed dramatically in 106, though to some extent that could be related to constraints on fishing time because of McDonald Lake sockeye conservation.  There is currently some recruitment into the raceway and with a low pressure front scheduled to hit us this afternoon; we should get any local fish into the raceway within the next couple of days.  We will know more about the run then.

We did one decent harvest at Burnett Inlet.  Once broodstock is set aside it may be possible to do another harvest from the coho returning to Burnett.

Whitman Kings: While we have cleaned up the kings returning to Neets Bay, we cannot actively harvest the fish returning to Whitman.  They can only be harvested after they have entered the raceway at the hatchery.  The return this summer has been strong.  The staff at Whitman has done 10 harvests, the most recent this morning.  We are about to send a second van of processed Whitman kings south.  We have shipped three Chinook filled vans from Neets and it would not be a surprise if the Whitman return came close to matching what was harvested at Neets.

We will try to do another update on Friday this week.

22 July 2008

Just a short note:  the harvest of Neets Bay chum has matched the processing capacity of the Lucky Buck for more than a week.  We have also been able to start on broodstock collection, just a few fish to monitor behavior and test our system.  Serious broodstock collection will begin in several days…and with any luck the growing abundance will support both harvest and broodstock collection without any significant break in harvest.

A quick look at the graphics suggests that perhaps the run is occurring as anticipated but simply displaced a week later than forecast, though our detailed data suggests it is not that simple.  There are probably fewer 4’s than forecast and more 3’s.  It is too early in the run to make much of that except as an observation.

The fish continue to be larger than they were last year and we are just slightly past 40% female on the daily harvest.  This could also be misleading as 3’s tend to be slightly more male than female, so the midpoint of a return with strong 3’s could be less than 50% female.

Reports from Whale Pass suggest we will do another summer coho harvest at the end of this week.  This is our 6^th harvest.  We just finished a quick harvest from Burnett Inlet that, coupled with the next Neck Lake Harvest, will put us beyond last summer’s total. There has been some recent harvest of these fish in District 113 troll which also suggests the run still has some legs. We anticipate cost recovery to continue for at least several more weeks.  Recruitment has still been good despite decent weather.  Historically these fish have not recruited well except during low pressure events.  Rain is forecast for later this week, and that should give us a good idea of the number of Snow Pass coho in the Whale Pass area.

We will next update this section on Thursday or Friday of this week.

15 July 2008 

Just a short note:  the Neets Bay chum harvest picked up dramatically yesterday when we landed about 200,000 pounds.  It appears the same thing is happening today.  The male/female ratio still suggests this run is a little late…but not much.  The fish are a bit larger than last year, there was clearly more feed in the ocean this past winter spring than was the case for the return in 2007.

Reports from Whale Pass suggest we will do another summer coho harvest at the end of this week.  Recruitment has been good despite decent weather.  Historically these fish have not recruited well except during low pressure events.  We are not sure what that means, but recruitment during decent weather could mean a few more fish are on the way than we have seen in the past few years, or maybe simply that the water from Neck Lake is a lot cooler this summer.

We will next update this section on Monday or Tuesday next week.

13 July 2008

SSRAA Cost Recovery:  We began fishing Neets Bay on 25 June.  We basically cleaned up some kings and caught a handful of chums.  The bay is still relatively quiet.  We are well behind where we anticipated we would be at this date.  Of course fish do not pay precise attention to dates on a calendar.  The fish we have harvested suggest the run is still in its earliest stages.  The male percentage is very high, egg skeins are immature and tight, the fish are bright with good meat color, the fish are in small schools and nothing has shown any interest in approaching freshwater.  Runs in other places in Alaska have been late this summer.

Usually when someone says it looks like the run is late, the final assessment after the run is that the run was weak.  In this case, and at this point, it is possible the run is simply late. 

One other important observation, the fish are pretty chunky this year…they did not miss lunch.  This is a very good sign since decent survival has always been associated with larger fish at Neets.  While this may not impact the 4’s and 5’s much, we will watch this years 3’s closely.

Snow Pass Coho:  We did our third Snow Pass harvest last Friday and Saturday.  Several of us went over to Whale Pass to help.  The fish look good and are larger than they have been the past several weeks.  The harvest stands at 8,400 fish, which is ahead of the usual at this date.

There are a number of people in Whale Pass who “volunteer” to help JR and Dolores work the fish.  This is very helpful and sometimes close to necessary for the success of the project.  On Friday we were fortunate to have the company of a fishing guide from the local lodge, Aaron a New Zealander, work the day with us.  Several other local folks stopped by to see if they were needed.  We certainly thank these people.

Snow Pass Harvest - July 2008