Neets Bay Management Plan Explanation (full text to follow).

During it’s meeting on 26 April 2002, the SSRAA Board adopted a management plan for Neets Bay.  The purpose of the plan was to determine how Neets Bay chum salmon harvest should function in the future: how many fish should be retained in the bay as opposed to moving the fish to other terminal harvest areas, and who would harvest fish in Neets Bay itself.

By the terms of the plan the priority uses of chum salmon returning to the Neets Bay Special Harvest Area are broodstock, SSRAA cost recovery and troller harvest.  Fish that are not required for these three purposes will ultimately be moved to other SSRAA terminal harvest areas where common property users take all the returning fish. 

The key to the process is to determine how many chum salmon fry must be released in Neets Bay to meet the goals for Neets Bay.  The first step in the process is to determine how many adults are needed to meet each of the goals.  The number of fry needed to produce those adults will be determined by a 10-year moving average of the survival rate of Neets Bay summer chum fry to adult.

The number retained for broodstock, the highest priority, is determined by the average number of adult fish necessary to take the number of eggs permitted at Neets Bay.  As an example; we know the average number of eggs available in a female Neets Bay summer chum and from that we can determine how many females are needed to meet our permitted capacity for fertilized eggs.  We also know how many fish are lost between putting them over the barrier until the point where they are available for egg collection in the raceway.  The actual calculation for the number of fry that must be released to produce the required broodstock is determined by dividing the number of adults required by the 10-year average survival rate of summer chum fry to adult for Neets Bay releases.  In the example, if we need 100,000 adults, divide that by .0383 (3.83% survival rate) and find we need to release 2,611,000 fry to produce 100,000 adult fish.

A similar exercise is used to determine what is needed for cost recovery the most recent 10-year moving average survival of fry to adult, the most recent 3-year moving average of value per round pound received by SSRAA in it’s cost recovery activities, and the annual operational budget estimate.  The value per pound will be used to determine the adults needed to meet the budget requirement. The survival rate will be used to determine the number of fry released to produce the required number of adults.

SSRAA recognizes that trollers are most effective at harvesting chums when there is a constant and sufficient abundance of fish.  Because of this requirement, trollers have not been successful in terminal harvest areas (THA’s) and special harvest areas (SHA’s) as participants in active rotational fisheries with net gear groups.  It is SSRAA’s intention to set Neets Bay aside as a place where trollers will be able to successfully harvest chum salmon.  The troller goal in the management plan is the annual harvest of 200,000 chum salmon.  This is about 2.2 million pounds.  The fry necessary to provide these fish will be calculated in the same way broodstock and cost recovery numbers were determined, using the most recent 10-year moving average for the survival of a fry to adult to determine the number of fry needed to produce 200,000 adults.

Fish produced at Neets Bay beyond these three defined needs will be moved to other SSRAA terminal harvest areas at Nakat, Kendrick or Anita Bay.

SSRAA also recognizes the need for trollers to have a stable annual fishery.  A reserve account of $2 million will be established through cost recovery at Neets Bay to accomplish this goal.  When annual projections do not suggest a return large enough to provide broodstock, cost recovery and 200,000 adults for trollers, the trollers will still harvest 200,000 fish and funds will be taken from the reserve to make up the cost recovery needs.  When annual projections suggest larger than anticipated returns, additional fish may be taken in cost recovery to return the reserve to a full funding.  There will be no fishery in the unlikely event the annual projection suggests only enough fish will return to meet broodstock needs.

Currently trollers will fish in the Neets Bay terminal harvest area for chum salmon only in years when a surplus above needs for broodstock and cost recovery is identified, until the $2 million reserve account is fully funded.  After full funding of this account the troll fishery will occur every year unless the specific $2 million reserve is exhausted.  If the reserve is exhausted it will be rebuilt through cost recovery as is currently the situation. Under even these pre-reserve account terms it is possible trollers would have participated in Neets Bay five of the last six years.

When the return of chum salmon is significantly above the number of returning adults to satisfy broodstock, cost recovery and troller harvest a net rotational fishery will be scheduled on the front shoulder of the return to harvest the projected surplus.  This will occur if the reserve account is fully funded or the run exceeds contract cost recovery harvest potential.  As an example, this would have been the case in 1998 under any circumstance and possibly in 2000 if the reserves had been in place.

In summary, on an average year, as corporate debt has been paid down, there are more chum salmon returning to Neets Bay than SSRAA will ultimately need for broodstock, cost recovery, and a 200,000 fish troll harvest.  The management plan does two things for common property harvesters; it reserves an area for trollers to consistently harvest chums and it provides a means for SSRAA to determine the number of fish that can be moved out of Neets Bay for harvest by the net fleets at Nakat, Kendrick and Anita Bay.  The trigger on the plan is the accumulation of the required financial reserves.  It is fair to say that the trollers may be forgoing some harvest in Neets Bay while reserves accumulate through cost recovery in order to provide a consistent harvest in the future.  The amount of harvest allowed each year as the reserves are accumulated is a matter for the SSRAA Board to determine during each annual run projection and operational budget reconciliation.  The excess summer chum will be moved from Neets to the other SSRAA THA’s when the reserves are in place.

It is important the reader understand that SSRAA has proposed increasing production to provide additional fish for release at Nakat, Kendrick and Anita Bay.  It is also important to note that a large number of the summer chum salmon released at Neets Bay are harvested by the net fleets prior to their return to the SHA.

Neets Bay Management Plan

Neets Bay will be managed by the following principals to produce the numbers of fish necessary to meet SSRAA’s goals.  The items are stated in order of priority. 

1) The number of broodstock required to meet SSRAA’s program for the various species.  For chum salmon, this number will be the number of fry to be released in the bay in any given year as determined by multiplying the broodstock requirement times the 10-year moving average of the survival rate of chum returning to the bay. For other species it will be the number of fry permitted or as approved by the Board of Directors.

2) The number of fish required to meet SSRAA’s projected cost recovery goal.  This will be the number of fry to be released in the bay that is required to produce a return sufficient to meet the cost recovery goal four years in the future. The number of fry will be determined by dividing the cost recovery goal by the product of the 10 year moving average of survival times the average weight of the fish times the 3 year moving average of the value per pound received from SSRAA’s cost recovery activities.

3) Release the number of fry in the bay each year that will produce a return sufficient to allow trollers to catch 200,000 chums in and around the Neets bay terminal harvest area. The number will be determined as in one above.

4) SSRAA’s operating reserve account will be increased 2 million dollars above its present target level as established by current SSRAA policy.  In years when the number of fish returning to the bay is above the number required for items 1 through 3 the additional fish will fund the reserve account up to the limit established. In years when the FORECAST for returns to Neets Bay is below the number required for items 1 through 3, the trollers will be allowed to fish up to the 200,000 fish target and any shortfall in cost recovery will be taken from the reserve account. If the forecast indicates that the number of fish expected to return is less than 125% of the number of fish required for brood stock, the trollers will not be allowed to fish in the terminal harvest area.

5) Trollers will only fish inside Neets Bay terminal harvest area for chums in years when a surplus above items 1 and 2 is forecast until the reserve account is fully funded. After full funding of the reserve account, the chum troll fishery will occur every year unless the 2 million-dollar portion of the reserve account is exhausted.

6) Fish not required for items 1 to 3 above will be placed in remote release sites for harvest by fishermen.

7) When the FORECAST return is significantly above the number of returning adults to satisfy items 1 through 4 above, a net rotational fishery will be scheduled on the front shoulder of the run to harvest the projected surplus.  This can occur only if the reserve account is fully funded or the run exceeds contract harvest potential for all harvest contracts.